Results 1 to 4 of 4

Thread: China in a box

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Friday, November 1st, 2013
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:02 PM
    Posts
    9,420
    Post Thanks / Like

    China in a box

    According to "sundance":

    President Trump Outwits Chairman Xi Jinping Ahead of G20 Summit…
    President Trump has taken the leverage of economics to levels of geopolitical strategy never seen before. Nowhere is the genius strategy more clear than in the way Trump has positioned the trade reset and confrontation with China.

    In hindsight every move since early 2017 including: (1) the warm welcome of Chairman Xi Jinping to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate; (2) the vociferous praise poured upon Xi; (3) the November 2017 tour of Asia; (4) the direct engagement with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un; the strategic relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; and a host of smaller nuanced moves have been quietly building toward a conclusion.

    The upcoming G-20 summit is the last chance for Trump and Xi to reconcile considerable differences and President Trump has the strongest strategic position any Chinese official has ever faced.
    An important aspect, missed by most observers, is the ideology and outlook within any Chinese engagement. Quite simply, if it does not benefit China it is not done. Therefore any negotiation with China is challenging because Beijing will cede no ground they view as already won.

    China does not believe in ‘concession from current position‘ within any terms. Ultimately this is the reason why the negotiated agreement by Lighthizer and Vice-Premier He was dismissed by Beijing and talks collapsed. China will not cede an already attained position.

    China never negotiates terms where they give ground. Almost all negotiation with China has historically surrounded time. To appease the West the longer-thinking approach of China has been to negotiate winning more slowly, but they will never retreat on previously won gains.

    However, in advance of the G20 Summit in Japan President Trump has positioned Chairman Xi in a lose/lose dynamic. This forces the outlook of Beijing into a state of internal anxiety. Only President Donald Trump could have achieved this position, is really is remarkable and is noted within this Bloomberg article:
    Sundance refers to this Bloomberg piece, which seems to be a large part of his inspiration:

    Xi Has Few Good Options After Trump’s Ultimatum on G-20 Meeting
    ...The brinkmanship puts Xi -- China’s strongest leader in decades -- in perhaps the toughest spot of his six-year presidency. If Xi caves to Trump’s threats, he risks looking weak at home. If he declines the meeting, he must accept the economic costs that come with Trump possibly extending the trade conflict through the 2020 presidential elections.

    “Whether they meet or not, none of the possible scenarios are good for President Xi or the economy in the long run,” said Zhang Jian, an associate professor at Peking University. “You don’t have a good choice which can meet the needs of the Chinese economy or Mr. Xi’s political calculations.”
    Quote Originally Posted by sundance
    China NEVER faces lose/lose situations. The Chinese culture doesn’t even have a frame of reference for a position that includes ‘less losing’ amid better options.

    For President Trump to have navigated Chairman Xi into such a position is the pinnacle of strategic success. In the long history of western engagement with Beijing it has never happened, ever.

    President Trump is now playing with Chairman Xi like a mouse in a maze.

    Trump wants to go to the full confrontation position. Donald J Trump has been talking about this for thirty years. Additionally, for the past two years he has strategically laid the groundwork and aligned the allies needed for this final confrontation. President Trump is looking for an excuse to apply the scale of tariffs on China that will crush their U.S. export business – and – force them into massive state subsidies to retain their manufacturing model. This approach creates pressure to retract from preexisting global financial obligations.

    President Trump has threatened more tariffs and more consequential action as it relates to non-tariff barriers, IP protection, forced technology transfers etc. as a result of China reneging on their prior agreement. In essence, President Trump has put Chairman Xi under threat. Beijing’s traditional and cultural position would be no-meeting and no negotiation while under threats.

    However, as a baseline disposition President Trump doesn’t want Xi Jinping to meet with him. The appearance of a ‘slight’ is the opening Trump can exploit to apply the 25% tariffs to the remaining $350 billion of imported Chinese goods. This will crush his adversary.

    So what does President Trump do… while the tariff threat and trade punishment looms (and he keeps reminding everyone of it), he levels massive amounts of praise upon Chairman Xi making the pressure almost unbearable.

    Laughably, U.S. President Trump is wearing the panda mask, and simultaneously applying the dragon approach. Yes, Trump is using China’s own duplicitous strategy against them.

    Chairman Xi cannot meet with President Trump or his appearance implies a willingness to negotiate terms; and that reverses the dismissive position previously outlined by Beijing when they rebuked the earlier agreement. A meeting now would appear as weak.

    However, if Xi refuses the G20 meeting he will be walking into a trap and allowing President Trump to take all adversarial action that could indeed collapse Xi’s economy.

    Worse still, Beijing cannot fall-back-on their historic approach and begin shooting missiles from their proxy province of North Korea to attain leverage and negotiating position… because President Trump has already blunted that ability by meeting with Chairman Kim Jong Un....
    I suspect the Chinese harbor an ancient (by our standards) resentment toward the West, coupled with a calm but impervious feeling of superiority toward us. They outlasted the 99-year lease of Hong Kong to the Brits, and they can outlast the two-century old United States.

    (But hell, they have only themselves to blame. If they hadn't scuttled their "Treasure Fleet" back in the days of Columbus, we'd probably be speaking Mandarin today.)

    From our quailing media, though, you'd hardly know China has any concerns at all.
    “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff, explaining the Green New Deal for the hard of hearing.

    "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.

  2. Likes 80zephyr liked this post
  3. #2
    Join Date
    Saturday, January 3rd, 2015
    Last Online
    Today @ 6:57 PM
    Posts
    11,257
    Post Thanks / Like
    China is shaking in its boots. You can take that to the bank.

    Mark
    Race Card: A tool of the intellectually weak and lazy when they cannot counter a logical argument or factual data.

    "Liberals have to stop insisting that the world is what they want it to be instead of the way it is." - Bill Maher

    Political correctness is ideological fascism. It’s the antithesis of freedom. Dr. Piper

    Gender is not a "Social Construct", it is an outgrowth of biological reality.

  4. Likes Frostbit, scott liked this post
  5. #3
    Join Date
    Friday, November 1st, 2013
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:02 PM
    Posts
    9,420
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by 80zephyr View Post
    China is shaking in its boots. You can take that to the bank.

    Mark
    They are very much at a disadvantage in this contest, not that you'd know it.

    Same thing with Iran. Trump's moves have badly damaged their economy and prospects. They've stopped releasing any numbers on inflation, for example. They're playing the only card they've got left, trying to extort concessions from European wimps, to open up a financial lifeline.

    It's too late for ISIS, really (remember how big and bad they were?—even now I can't forget their atrocities), but at least China, Iran and North Korea have much of our news media on their side. Some of the media desperately want Trump to fail, they're convinced he's stupid and dangerous, and report events accordingly.
    “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff, explaining the Green New Deal for the hard of hearing.

    "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.

  6. #4
    Join Date
    Friday, November 1st, 2013
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:02 PM
    Posts
    9,420
    Post Thanks / Like
    Today China announced Xi was going to to see Kim in NK.

    China's President Xi to visit North Korea this week
    Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit North Korea for two days from Thursday, state media in both countries reported on Monday, making him the first Chinese leader to visit in 14 years.
    The invitation was made by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, state media in both countries said.

    Since a failed summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim in Hanoi earlier this year, Pyongyang has resumed some weapons tests and warned of "truly undesired consequences" if the United States is not more flexible.

    Xi's visit kicks off a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity around the Korean peninsula, with Trump set to visit ally South Korea after the G20 summit this month in Osaka, Japan.
    Sundance posted this evening, citing the Reuters account, and relates the development to his earlier post:
    ...For two-and-a-half years U.S. President Trump has been working on two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon (Kim is hostage to China); and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China.
    At first blush, there’s always a possibility of Chairman Xi going to see Chairman Kim in dragon mode… looking for a way to weaponize the DPRK despite the budding relationship between Chairman Kim (hostage) and U.S. President Donald Trump. However, that dragon perspective is blunted by the open media indications that the talks are centered around denuclearization. So that puts more weight on the second possibility.

    The second possibility, the more optimistic possibility, is that we have finally reached that point in the U.S. -vs- China economic confrontation where Chairman Xi is now facing defeat and attempting to save face, and gain a better economic outcome, by releasing his hostage. This would be an incredible, almost unfathomable, win for President Trump; and an astounding visible affirmation that the year’s long strategy has been successful.
    Sundance writes, "Caution is the word of the day," and, "this is the cunning and duplicitous China we are talking about here…. they have a history of using deceit and stall tactics to achieve victory." But he keeps writing anyway.

    His big picture is that Kim is owned by China, a hostage in effect. Xi will free Kim to get rid of his nukes, the real deal, and use that manumission as a bargaining chip to wriggle out of the economic vice Trump has set up for China.

    About whether Xi agrees to meet with Trump at the G20 Summit, it's all in the appearances:
    [I]t’s worth watching very closely now to see the details of the G20 and whether Xi and Trump actually meet.

    Beijing has announced Chairman Xi and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are scheduled for a meeting…. and we know on the issue of DPRK hostage release Chairman Xi will need to save face very carefully.

    One way for Xi to avoid the appearance of acquiescence to Trump would be for him and Beijing to place the victory at the feet of Moon Jae-in instead of President Trump. I would almost guarantee, if indeed Xi is now giving up his hostage, China will position themselves as magnanimous panda and South Korea as the beneficiary.

    Ultimately, I don’t think President Trump really cares about who gets credit for the victory and hostage release of Chairman Kim. The world will know, though the media may not assign, the victory is only because President Trump has outwitted Chairman Xi and his communist regime…. and Trump did that though strategic economic pressure.

    We should be able to get some indications from public and media discussion ahead of the G20 summit in Japan this month, as to how -specifically- the hostage release will take place; and/or the terms and conditions within that release. Will Chairman Xi meet with President Trump?

    …or will Xi tell Kim (or an emissary) to inform Trump there will be no meeting, but the face-saving terms and reasons are understood by all the principals.
    Sundance finishes:
    President Trump has been openly, albeit with coded messages, telling the world North Korea is no longer a threat. The secondary purpose of making those statements is to blunt the value of Xi giving up his hostage. In essence, Trump has been telling Beijing: it’s a victory already achieved, so magnanimous panda isn’t providing Trump anything of measurable value.

    Remember, two connected objectives: (1) removing the threat posed by North Korea by severing the ability of Beijing to use the proxy province as a weapon; and (2) deconstructing the growing economic influence of China. With #1 achieved, President Trump still fully intends to get #2. Heck, Trump has spent 30-years openly advocating for the principle of restoring American wealth. That means the economic pressure will continue until Beijing is defeated.
    "Beijing is defeated"? Or, is it as Sundance wrote in the earlier post, "they will never retreat"?

    I don't know if it's an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, but I do doubt it will be over quickly.
    “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff, explaining the Green New Deal for the hard of hearing.

    "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •