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Thread: The Abraham Accords

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    The Abraham Accords

    Signed today, the agreement between the U.S., Bahrain, Israel and the UAE.

    Abraham Accords: Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations



    This has been the subject of several nearby threads, Isreal and the UAE shake hands, Bahrain, Israel to normalize relations in push for Mideast peace, and Bahrain, Israel to normalize relations in push for Mideast peace, and others in passim.

    It has been rumored that more is coming, speculation about Saudi Arabia in particular. Today the rumors got a lot more credibility for being confirmed by the President:

    Up To 9 Additional Nations Could Join Peace Deal With Israel, Including Saudi Arabia, Trump Says
    President Donald Trump said Tuesday afternoon that up to nine additional nations could join a peace deal with Israel in the near future, including Saudi Arabia.

    “We have many other countries [that are] going to be joining us and they’re going to be joining us soon,” Trump told reporters on the White House lawn. “We’ll have, I think, I mean I think seven, or eight, or nine. We’re going to have a lot of other countries joining us, including the big ones.”
    Seven, or eight, or nine? Meaning possibly 11 Middle East countries might establish diplomatic relations with Israel? I bet very few Americans could even name 11 ME countries.

    This would mean several things, simply put:
    1. Iran has lost.
      So have its terrorist proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
    2. China has lost.
      Good for Trump is bad for China, at the moment. The Middle East front, as it were, is fast being settled in favor of the U.S.
    3. Trump has won.
      He has established credibility, which I believe began when he moved the US. Israel embassy to Jerusalem. In this there is no credit for the Republican Party, which has been as insentient as the Democrats over the decades.
    4. Critical mass has been reached.
      Bahrain and the UAE may be feelers, in a sense, testing the new paradigm. Now the flood, which should, all things considered, be led by Saudi Arabia.
    5. The future in the Middle East has been transformed.
    6. The Nobel Committee can safely award the Peace prize to "peacemakers" and ignore the Orange Man.
    7. American Jews will still vote for Democrats, because


    Count me among those who rolled their eyes at Jared Kushner, setting off to burn jet fuel in yet another Quixotic run at "Peace in the Middle East." I compared him to Waldo, about to get lost forever.

    So I have to chow down on some humble pie. Maybe I'll invite Nancy and Chuck over.
    • “Weakness is refusing to take responsibility for your own actions, weakness is pointing your finger at someone else in a time of crisis." — Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, blaming Trump.
    • "We hold these truths to be self evident. All men and women created by the, you know, you know, the thing." —Joe Biden, explaining the Creator.
    • "The way I see it, there's always, c'mon, there's always money. It's there." —Elizabeth Warren, explaining socialism.
    • “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff.
    • "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.


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    The handwriting is and has been on the wall for those who wanted to see it.

    Mideast oil is a finite resource. That should be obvious to even the Scarecrow from the Wizard Of Oz.

    The Arabs have probably finally come to this realization that they must join the World or end up roasting goat meat over a camel dung fire when the wells dry up, and or the Western countries gradually wean themselves from the petrochemical teat.

    Fracking hastened it.
    Robert Francis O'Rourke, Democrat, White guy, spent ~78 million to defeat, Ted Cruz, Republican immigrant Dark guy …
    and lost …
    But the Republicans are racist.

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    True that. Our newfound energy independence changed our relationship (and dependency) in the equation.

    That independence is probably behind Trump's ability to avoid new military entanglements and reduce our military presence there, too. For as long as I can remember it was in "our strategic national interest" to keep the flow of oil secure and so on.
    • “Weakness is refusing to take responsibility for your own actions, weakness is pointing your finger at someone else in a time of crisis." — Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, blaming Trump.
    • "We hold these truths to be self evident. All men and women created by the, you know, you know, the thing." —Joe Biden, explaining the Creator.
    • "The way I see it, there's always, c'mon, there's always money. It's there." —Elizabeth Warren, explaining socialism.
    • “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff.
    • "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.


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    I wonder if some of this huge success didn't spring from Trump and his proxies completely changing the conversation?

    Previously the West has always partially bought into the various lunacies and chest-thumping declarations of honor and history shouted by generations of Middle Eastern religious fanatics. I can't see Trump agreeing to go in that direction but business? The guy knows business.

    So do a lot of the younger and smarter Western-educated leaders and advisors in the area. These people aren't one generation away from drinking camel piss and stealing wives from other ragged tribes. They are highly educated, well traveled, and spend more time following international monetary policies than they do with their rumps in the air and their noses rubbing the carpet.

    They understand the current and coming economic realities in their regions. War is expensive and pointless since conquest is no longer possible. A sustainable economic base has to be developed and they realize it. All those much celebrated boy martyrs are less of an asset now than they are an unstable threat to tourism and development.

    Trump can talk the new language that is needed to solve problems instead of glorifying them and I bet they are listening.
    "Alexa, slaughter the fatted calf."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gingersnap View Post
    I wonder if some of this huge success didn't spring from Trump and his proxies completely changing the conversation?

    Previously the West has always partially bought into the various lunacies and chest-thumping declarations of honor and history shouted by generations of Middle Eastern religious fanatics. I can't see Trump agreeing to go in that direction but business? The guy knows business.
    The obstructionists were always the Palestinian "leaders" in their various terrorist incarnations, which has always been aligned with leftist Westerners.

    I haven't checked, but I read that only Hungary of all the European nations was going to attend the signing yesterday. That would be a towering pile of spinelessness, a wait-and-see crowd of Quislings.

    The Democrats such as Schumer are completely hogtied by the BDS wing of their Party, the antisemitic pro-Farrakhan crew, such that he is forced to be an absolute fool ("I haven't seen the details yet") in front of the cameras. I think he even bested Pelosi's "distraction" bon mot, but only because he himself is Jewish and would ordinarily favor "peace in the Middle East," a new accord that enhances Israel's right to exist.

    But he hasn't seen the details yet.
    • “Weakness is refusing to take responsibility for your own actions, weakness is pointing your finger at someone else in a time of crisis." — Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, blaming Trump.
    • "We hold these truths to be self evident. All men and women created by the, you know, you know, the thing." —Joe Biden, explaining the Creator.
    • "The way I see it, there's always, c'mon, there's always money. It's there." —Elizabeth Warren, explaining socialism.
    • “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff.
    • "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.


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    Maybe. We'll see. Not trusting of Arabs. Whose goal is Western conquest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Marva View Post
    Maybe. We'll see. Not trusting of Arabs. Whose goal is Western conquest.
    Their goal is to make large amounts of money that aren't dependent on oil resources. Oil is everywhere (if politicians allow it to be found and processed) but everybody is getting much more efficient with it. Most Middle Eastern countries have very young populations now and those people are much less interested in fundamental Islam (many are agnostics today). There is no hiding from the influence of the Internet which is making them less and less interested in living in mud huts in tiny villages. They want to have jobs that happen in offices, they want to engage in nightlife, they have less interest or time to shove women in bags and haul them around for shopping or other errands.

    Things really are changing which is causing a lot of internal strife in some places but change is going to happen whether the old guard likes it or not.
    "Alexa, slaughter the fatted calf."

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    I'd forgotten that the Jewish New Year starts this week.

    Even the NY Daily News seems more aware:

    Dominoes of peace: Pieces of a new Mideast are falling into place
    Buy one, get one free isn’t usually for treaties between nations, but it happened, so we offer high praise for President Trump, Jared Kushner and other key administration officials for engineering a pair of Israel-Arab peace pacts in less than a month, consummated on the White House South Lawn yesterday with signings by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with Israel.

    The president — a man, we need not remind you, we overall consider a disaster in the job — delivered a breakthrough for cooperation and advancement in the Mideast. And there may be more to come; Trump insists “we’re very far down the road with about five countries, five additional countries.”

    For many, this will make for a very happy Jewish New Year, 5781, which starts Friday evening. . . .

    The strategic consequence of this momentum, should it continue, is that Iran and its friends in terrorism and regional destabilization will be increasingly outflanked. Palestinians will, we hope, come to see that refusing to broker peace with Israel is a dead end.

    There’s a road ahead, and it leads to coexistence.
    • “Weakness is refusing to take responsibility for your own actions, weakness is pointing your finger at someone else in a time of crisis." — Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, blaming Trump.
    • "We hold these truths to be self evident. All men and women created by the, you know, you know, the thing." —Joe Biden, explaining the Creator.
    • "The way I see it, there's always, c'mon, there's always money. It's there." —Elizabeth Warren, explaining socialism.
    • “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff.
    • "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.


  11. #9
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    Palestinians will, we hope, come to see that refusing to broker peace with Israel is a dead end.
    not happening.
    So no long as they are Arab proxies.

  12. #10
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    Good article by David P. Goldman in Asia Times, that does not focus on the partisan nitpicking of this campaign season, as hinted in its subhead:

    Donald Trump’s lonely victory in the Middle East
    The US president has trampled over the conventional wisdom of the whole foreign policy establishment
    Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan, an old adage says. An exception is the peace agreement among Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, likely to be followed by several other Arab states. Added to this is Kosovo’s decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem in the context of normalized relations with Israel, the first Muslim-majority country to do so.

    America’s boisterous president trampled over the conventional wisdom of the whole foreign policy establishment in the United States as well as Europe, and in both the “left” and “right” wings of American policymaking.

    The Europeans and most of the Democratic Party insisted that a resolution of the Palestinian statehood issue was a precondition for peace, while the Bush-McCain-Romney wing of the Republican party insisted that American influence required massive military deployment in the region.
    Wrong. Turns out the way forward is to remove Iran as a power player.

    War-hawks too were wrong.
    When Trump announced the withdrawal of the tiny contingent of American troops in Syria in September 2019, a paroxysm of protest went through the Republican foreign policy Establishment. Defense Secretary James Mattis resigned shortly afterwards.

    Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies called Trump’s decision “a complete debacle.” The Hudson Institute’s Michael Doran, a former National Security Council official, declared that Washington had no choice but to back Turkey in Syria. Michael Makovsky of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs complained that “Israel now faces more pressure and threats from Iran.”

    But Trump did not lean on Turkey. Nor did he leave the field open to Iran. On the contrary: He let Russia contain Turkey’s ambitions in Syria by containing the Sunni jihadists backed by Ankara. That was a courageous thing to do in the midst of a witch-hunt against supposed “collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia, a charge concocted out of thin air by Trump’s political opponents.

    As Trump told a September 3 campaign rally, “If I get along with Russia, is that a good thing or a bad thing?” To get US troops out of the Middle East, there is no choice but to get along with Russia. One might mention China as well. I will return to that issue later.

    American backing for Sunni jihadists during the Syrian Civil War required Russia to intervene in 2015. A top Israeli security official told me of a conversation with Putin in which the Russian leader explained that Syria had become a magnet for Russian Muslim jihadists from the Caucasus, such that Russian security demanded a solution to the conflict.

    Both the George W Bush Administration under Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Obama Administration under Hillary Clinton and her European chief Victoria Nuland wanted to cut Putin off at the knees. Putin responded by deploying Russian fighter aircraft and ground troops in Syria.

    In fact, Russia acted as a stabilizer in Syria, leaning against the region’s spoilers – Iran and Turkey. Israel flew hundreds of sorties against Iranian proxies in Syria during the past year under the tolerant eye of the Russian military.
    Trump’s decision to assassinate Iran’s irregular warfare chief Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport last January 3 answered Iran’s September 2019 drone attacks on a Saudi oil facility, among other Iranian provocations. Russia condemned it and European foreign ministries warned against military escalation, but Trump had made his point: Iran would pay a heavy price for its pinprick warfare against its Arab neighbors.

    Without getting a bit of blood on his hands, Trump could not have convinced Gulf leaders to take the risk of a peace deal with Israel.
    Where the Palestinian issue is concerned, Hillary Clinton’s memorable phrase applies: “What does it matter anymore?” Palestinian nationality exists only because the Arab states refused to accept the existence of the State of Israel. Between 1947 and 1950, approximately 800,000 Arabs left the new State of Israel and approximately 800,000 Jews left Arab states.

    The Arabs left under wartime conditions, some enticed to leave by their leaders, some to escape the war, and some driven out by the new Jewish State. Arab regimes expelled Jewish populations that in the case of Iraq and Persia had lived there for 2,500 years. The Jews of Baghdad, a wealthy and cultured community, left with the clothes on their backs.

    This population exchange was similar to many other such exchanges during the 20th century: Greeks and Turks after World War I, ethnic Germans from Czechoslovakia, Hindus and Muslims after the partition of India, and so forth. In every other case the refugees were absorbed by their ethnic and confessional kinsmen in the receiving country.

    Uniquely in the case of the Palestinian Arabs, the refugees were isolated as a stateless population rather than absorbed. They were not absorbed for the sole reason that the Arab states wished to maintain them as a hostage population, a pledge for the eventual liquidation of the Zionist State. Uniquely among all displaced populations, the Palestinian Arabs maintained refugee status past the first generation, a designation given to no other refugee group in history.
    uropean diplomats bemoaned Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem (in fact, to West Jerusalem, which has been Israeli from the outset). What made this so controversial? The conventional wisdom in the world community held that the Arab obsession with the liquidation of the State of Israel must be humored. If the world didn’t recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, many Arabs reasoned, it didn’t really recognize Israel. What is Zionism without Zion (Jerusalem)? Trump’s decision threw a bucket of cold water in the face of Arab leaders and told them that Israel was there to stay.

    Faced with American reluctance to keep boots on the ground and the emergence of Israel as the strongest technological and military power of the region, the most enlightened and far-sighted among the Arab leaders, UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, walked away from the wreck of previous regional diplomacy and made peace with Israel. Saudi Arabia probably will follow.
    Remaining problems, Iran, Turkey and China, as Goldman wraps up:
    That leaves Iran and Turkey as the odd men out. If the United States acts adroitly, it can keep them off balance indefinitely. Ankara and Tehran have conflicting as well as coinciding interests. Russia meanwhile has been fighting proxy wars with Turkey in Libya as well as Syria. Trump’s improvisatory, unpredictable and often infuriating management style is well suited to America’s strategic requirements in the region.

    Managing the continuing mess in the region will require a Bismarckian combination of flexibility and nastiness. Trump’s biggest success may well be his handling of relations with Russia, whose English-language publications livestreamed the Sept. 15 signing ceremony at the White House while the major American media buried the story at the bottom of their websites.

    Trump’s biggest problem remains China. Iran and Turkey are constrained by extreme economic problems; if China decided to give them substantial financial backing (rather than the token support that Beijing has provided to date), America’s position in the region could change rapidly for the worse.

    China, to be sure, has no interest in a regional war, simply because it is the biggest importer of oil from the Persian Gulf. Trump’s initiative helps stabilize the region, and that serves Beijing’s economic interests for the time being. Barring a global escalation of tensions with the United States, China probably will continue to act cautiously in the Gulf.
    Donald, or perhaps Jared Kushner, seems to have found a new path through the weeds that leads to more security for Israel, more stability in the region, and less entanglement for the U.S. As Joe Biden once said about something or other, "It's a big fucking deal."

    If Saudi Arabia joins, as suggested here among many sources ("Saudi Arabia probably will follow."), the future of that region will have changed dramatically. Maybe even Chuck Schumer will notice.

    Tomorrow evening, Friday Sept. 18, is the beginning of Rosh Hashanah, and of course the usual Friday night news dump. Maybe the Friday mosques of Saudi Arabia will be interesting to monitor.
    • “Weakness is refusing to take responsibility for your own actions, weakness is pointing your finger at someone else in a time of crisis." — Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, blaming Trump.
    • "We hold these truths to be self evident. All men and women created by the, you know, you know, the thing." —Joe Biden, explaining the Creator.
    • "The way I see it, there's always, c'mon, there's always money. It's there." —Elizabeth Warren, explaining socialism.
    • “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all.... We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” —Saikat Chakrabarti, then AOC's Chief of Staff.
    • "We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them." —CNN's Don Lemon, showing how to stop demonizing people.


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