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Thread: Hillary vs. Cruz

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    Hillary vs. Cruz

    While Trump, Cruz and Bernie are all anti-establishment and I disagree with all of them very significantly I suspect that any one of them will get a large (25-40%) chunk of the other two's voters. I suspect that Cruz will be the least suicidal choice for the GOP and he will therefore be nominated. If Cruz can keep the Senate R and maintain his contacts to get more TEA party members elected in the mid-terms he will cripple a Hillary presidency. This is the Reagan playbook from 76-80. I think it will work.

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    Yeah if Trump gets the nod, then the long-running song about how the Republicans would win the White House if they only just put up a "real conservative" will live on. If Cruz gets the nod, then the theory will face a real test. So, the best outcome for "establishment Republicans" is for Cruz to get the nomination and then lose. That way they can tell the Tea Partiers we tried it your way and you failed, now pipe down and play ball.
    Last edited by Norm dePlume; Friday, April 8th, 2016 at 1:38 PM.

    On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
    -H. L. Mencken

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    If Trump can't pull off a first ballot convention win, don't count out Kasich or Jeb.

    After all, those back room pole smokers know better than us know nothing plebes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm dePlume View Post
    Yeah if Trump gets the nod, then the long-running song about how the Republicans would win the White House if they only just put up a "real conservative" will live on. If Cruz gets the nod, then the theory will face a real test. So, the best outcome for "establishment Republicans" is for Cruz to get the nomination and then lose. That way they can tell the Tea Partiers we tried it your way and you failed, now pipe down and play ball.
    With Cruz they lose the Senate; with Trump they lose the Senate and the House. With anyone else (meaning they pull a Garfield out of their hat), they keep both and have a slim to moderate shot at the presidency. And that doesn't even include other races throughout the Several States.

    They have too much to lose by allowing Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket including the Supreme Court for a generation. They have no choice but to fight.
    “Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”

    ~ Hannah Arendt

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    Slight disagreement

    Most blue states munis are selling at junk yields at the moment. Rollover may not be possible.

    Hot money is coming to the US and it will leave quickly if there are any problems.

    That will make it very difficult for Hillary to pick up purple states while greatly improving the chance of retaining the Senate for the GOP. If that second goal is achieved then Hillary's presidency will fail.

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    Quote Originally Posted by william the wierd View Post
    Slight disagreement

    Most blue states munis are selling at junk yields at the moment. Rollover may not be possible.

    Hot money is coming to the US and it will leave quickly if there are any problems.

    That will make it very difficult for Hillary to pick up purple states while greatly improving the chance of retaining the Senate for the GOP. If that second goal is achieved then Hillary's presidency will fail.
    I count one.
    “Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”

    ~ Hannah Arendt

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    Quote Originally Posted by gary m View Post
    If Trump can't pull off a first ballot convention win, don't count out Kasich or Jeb.

    After all, those back room pole smokers know better than us know nothing plebes.
    That would throw away the White House and Senate. Roughly 40% of the electorate would stay home and mostly Rs. With two anti-establishment candidates to choose from and a coronation going on on the D side Jeb/Kasich would hand a landslide to Hillary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Jingo View Post
    With Cruz they lose the Senate; with Trump they lose the Senate and the House. With anyone else (meaning they pull a Garfield out of their hat), they keep both and have a slim to moderate shot at the presidency. And that doesn't even include other races throughout the Several States.

    They have too much to lose by allowing Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket including the Supreme Court for a generation. They have no choice but to fight.
    Do you think they'll go back to the "save us Paul Ryan, you're the only one who can" well?

    On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
    -H. L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm dePlume View Post
    Do you think they'll go back to the "save us Paul Ryan, you're the only one who can" well?
    They may. Right now, there are a few jockeying for the honor of losing gracefully to Clinton. I think Romney, Kasich, and possibly Ryan are the top candidates but wouldn't be surprised by another.

    It won't work, though. They have to eat Cruz or Trump. But that doesn't mean they should just give up.
    “Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”

    ~ Hannah Arendt

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    Ryan definitely doesn't want the job and Romney is mass electoral suicide on steroids. Definitely lose WH, senate and probably the house with either one. There will be no R establishment at all in 2018. Upside it could put the LP permanently on the ballot.

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